Bad call?

Weather forecasters came under attack this week for being wrong on the course of a blizzard that formed this week.

Projections were that New York City would get up to 2 feet of snow (10 inches fell), Philadelphia would receive about 12-16 inches (about 1 inch fell), and we would receive 6-8 inches (we got just a couple inches).

How could a forecast be so wrong?

Maybe the forecast wasn't wrong. Maybe most people didn't read the fine print. A reading of the detailed official forecast was that the storm was going to be too difficult to predict accurately until it was into formation.

Since the storm formed off the New Jersey coast, there wasn't much time for forecasters to make a more precise determination of its track.

Had the track of the storm been just 20 miles west, which is minuscule in the scheme of things, New York would have gotten pounded and we would have had a measurable snow.

On the other hand, the prediction for Auburn, Massachusetts, was 18-24 inches (the town was buried in 36 inches) and Thompson, Connecticut, was 18-24 inches (33 inches came).

There are many factors that can affect the track of the storm, so even the best computers can be a little off.

The prediction was that a blizzard was going to form. It did. The prediction said it would move over Long Island and into New England. It did.

By being just slightly farther east than forecasters thought, New York City and Philadelphia were spared. So were we. And that's good.

What was more damaging were the politicians who probably don't know the difference between a lightning bolt and a lightning rod.

New York's mayor said it was going to be a historic storm, the worst storm ever.

If the mayor would have done just a little research, he would have known major blizzards have hit New York City in the past.

The worst storm of modern times was probably the Blizzard of 1888 when over 40 inches of snow buried New York accompanied by hurricane-force winds. A direct hit by this week's blizzard on the Big Apple wouldn't have compared.

A blizzard covered New York with up to 20 inches of snow, sleet and ice in February 1920. On Dec. 26, 1947, a surprise snowstorm brought over 26 inches of snow to New York City, the heaviest 24-hour accumulation of snow in the city's modern records. Most of the snow actually fell within a 12-hour period.

Weather forecasters don't always get it right. But their predictions are better now than they ever were.

In that blizzard of 1947, there were 77 fatalities. At least some of these deaths might have been prevented had meteorologists been equipped with the technology they have today.

Weather predictions are not an exact science, not for meteorologists or computers. They look at several computer models, and none ever match up perfectly.

Instead of condemning for making cautious errors, we should be thankful that we were given advance warning of what might happen.

The hype that accompanied it made people take precautions that could have been lifesaving.

By RON GOWER

rgower@tnonline.com