Incumbent legislators hold most of the cards

In 2020, all 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives (18 in Pennsylvania, three in our area), about one-third of the 100 seats in the U.S. Senate (none in Pennsylvania), all 203 seats in the state House of Representatives and 25 of the 50 seats in the state Senate are up for election.

On top of that, it is a presidential election year. And on top of that, some Pennsylvania counties will be using new voting machines mandated by Gov. Tom Wolf for the first time, while others will be using systems used for the first time in this past November’s general election with mixed results. And, yes, even on top of that will be new voting rules intended to make the electoral process easier for those going to the polls or for those who want to cast ballots by mail without needing an excuse.

It can be a recipe for chaos and confusion, especially since voter turnout is expected to be massive given what is at stake, particularly at the national level.

Among the thousands of candidates seeking office will be those who already hold the seats — the incumbents. For challengers to dislodge them, especially those whose districts are considered “safe” because of lopsided voter registration edges created by redistricting, even gerrymandering, the task is more daunting.

The incumbent has a decided political advantage over a challenger because they have easier access to campaign financing and government resources, and let’s not forget one of the biggest reasons — name recognition.

Aaron Sorkin wrote in his 1995 script for “The American President” that the White House is the “single greatest home-court advantage” in the world.

Writing for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Aaron David Miller called the president the “Energizer Bunny of American politics.” He pointed out that Congress and the Supreme Court, representing the other two branches of government, go in and out of session, but the president is always on and ever present.

With Donald Trump, even when he is not seen, he is sending out tweets to his estimated 62 million Twitter followers telling them what he is doing and thinking and sometimes even pronouncing policies.

In the past 11 elections with incumbent presidents, they prevailed eight times. Only George H.W. Bush, Jimmy Carter and Gerald Ford failed in re-election tries.

Of the 17 local state House members who serve communities in the Times News area, 10 are Republican and seven are Democrat. In the state Senate, there are three Republicans, two Democrats and one Independent (former Democrat John Yudichak, who represents Carbon County).

Two of the three members of the U.S. House of Representatives who serve the area are Democrats — Susan Wild and Matt Cartwright — while the other is Republican Dan Meuser.

Dislodging any of the incumbent state’s legislators is extremely difficult as any of their challengers in the 2018 midterm elections or those of two years earlier will tell you.

The Republicans have targeted the Wild and Cartwright districts as vulnerable and believe that a good showing by Trump will help down-ballot candidates, although one of the new election rules eliminates straight-party voting.

It is only when a legislator decides to retire that a newcomer has a realistic shot at the seat. Even then, it is often dependent on the candidate’s party. In most cases, the winner of the seat is a member of the party shared with the outgoing officeholder.

So far, two area state representatives said they will not seek re-election: Marcia Hahn, R-Northampton, is retiring, while Justin Simmons, R-Lehigh and Northampton, wants to return to the private sector. Candidates are already living up to compete for these nominations in the April 28 GOP primary.

Although he has been on Army National Guard deployment to the Middle East for nearly four months and won’t return home until “early summer,” Rep. Zach Mako, R-Northampton and Lehigh, plans to seek re-election. His district includes Slatington and Walnutport boroughs and Lehigh Township. Mako won re-election two years ago, beating Democrat Jason Ruff by about 2,500 votes out of more than 13,500 cast. Ruff, who serves as vice president of Slatington Borough Council, plans to run again this year, according to an online post. When he went on deployment, Mako promised that there would be “no change in constituent service.”

Democrats flipped five state Senate seats in 2018. Democrats also flipped eight Republican seats in the state House of Representatives, while the GOP was able to flip just one Democrat. Many of the flipped seats were in southeastern Pennsylvania where Democratic congressional candidates also fared well.

In our area, no incumbent state legislator was defeated. The longest-serving local legislator is Rep. Bob Freeman, D-Northampton, who has been in Harrisburg for 29 years and will complete his 15th term in 2020. Freeman was one of seven local state representatives who were unopposed for re-election in 2018.

That pretty much underscores the point I have been making.

By Bruce Frassinelli | tneditor@tnonline.com