Playoffs?
The high school football season is officially in the home stretch.
With just three weeks left in the regular season, several area teams are battling for their playoff lives.
This week’s Overtime column will look at what needs to happen for some of our local teams to reach the postseason.
In addition, Rod Heckman has dug into the Times News archives to come up with some interesting data on a pair of comebacks last week that highlight the notes part of this column.
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Only four of nine Times News area teams have winning records heading into Week No. 8.
Despite that, all nine are still alive for postseason play, including winless teams Marian and Pleasant Valley.
In today’s column, we’ll look at all six classes and examine the playoff possibilities for our area teams, and also give thoughts on how likely it is each area team qualifies.
Class 1A
(5 teams, 4 qualify)
Marian ... Despite an 0-7 record, Marian has one of the best opportunities to qualify for districts. The Colts are currently in fourth place, and winless Shenandoah is in fifth place. They play each other Friday night, and the winner almost assuredly will get the final playoff berth. The teams have played four common opponents, with Marian having done better against three of them. Comparing scores can be wildly unreliable, but Marian should be favored.
PLAYOFF PERCENTAGE - Marian 70%
Class 2A
(8 teams, 4 qualify)
Palmerton, Panther Valley ... This is a subregional tournament with District 12. District 11 is guaranteed two teams, District 12 is guaranteed one team, and the top remaining team regardless of district gets the other spot. With D-12 teams West Catholic and Bishop McDevitt currently ranked 1-2, it appears only two D-11 teams will qualify. Based on their current rating and their remaining opponents, Mahanoy Area (Panther Valley, Marian, Shenandoah) and Schuylkill Haven (Minersville, Panther Valley, Blue Mountain) have the inside track.
Palmerton is currently fifth. The Bombers (Wilson, Salisbury, Northern Lehigh) will more than likely have to win at least two of their final three games and also get some help. The most likely chance for help would be Blue Mountain beating Haven. If Palmerton and Haven both go 2-1 the rest of the way, the Bombers could hop Haven for the No. 4 spot, but it will be close. Panther Valley is currently seventh. The only hope for the Panthers (Mahanoy, Haven, Minersville) is to win out, which would give them wins against three teams currently ahead of it. Even then, PV would probably need a couple of Palmerton losses, and an additional loss from both Mahanoy and Haven.
PLAYOFF PERCENTAGE - Palmerton 30%, Panther Valley 1%
Class 3A
(9 teams, 4 qualify)
Jim Thorpe, Tamaqua, Northern Lehigh ... This class is loaded with quality. The top five teams are enjoying stellar seasons. Despite having only four playoff berths available, it also has the unusual situation in which five teams appear to control their own destiny, as North Schuylkill (6-1), Pine Grove (6-1), Jim Thorpe (6-1), Tamaqua (5-2) and Notre Dame (5-2) should all qualify if they win their remaining games. That’s the case because Jim Thorpe and Tamaqua play each other next week — so both of them can’t win out.
Where it gets interesting is if more than one of the teams don’t win out. Barring a complete collapse, North Schuylkill appears to be a lock to get one of the four spots. But Pine Grove (Line Mountain, Upper Dauphin, Halifax); Jim Thorpe (Pottsville, Tamaqua, Lehighton); Tamaqua (Lehighton, Jim Thorpe, Marian); and Notre Dame (Catasauqua, Saucon Valley, Wilson) are all within hundredths of a rating point of each other, so it’s almost impossible to figure out with complete certainty who will have the advantage between any teams that suffer one more loss, Here’s my guess on how the teams will finish if they all lose one more game and the loss comes against the best remaining teams on its schedule: Jim Thorpe, Notre Dame, Pine Grove, Tamaqua. But this will be so close that how each team’s defeated opponents do down the stretch could ultimately decide the order.
Northern Lehigh is currently seventh in the class. The Bulldogs (Palisades, Northwestern, Palmerton) would have to win out and then need at least three teams among Pine Grove, Tamaqua, Jim Thorpe and Notre Dame and Salisbury (Bangor, Palmerton, Southern Lehigh) to lose once — and possibly some of them to lose twice.
PLAYOFF PERCENTAGE - Tamaqua 65%, Jim Thorpe 55%, Northern Lehigh 10%.
Class 4A
(9 teams, 8 qualify)
Northwestern, Lehighton ... Northwestern is currently ranked second and has already clinched a district berth. The Tigers (Saucon Valley, Northern Lehigh, Catasauqua) will likely lock up an opening-round home game by winning at least two of its final three games.
Lehighton is currently ranked eighth, and is battling ninth-ranked Bangor for the 4A playoff berth. The Indians (Tamaqua, North Schuylkill, Jim Thorpe) have a brutal closing schedule, and will be underdogs in their remaining games. Meanwhile, Bangor (Salisbury, Wilson and Pen Argyl) has a much softer closing schedule as none of its future opponents currently have more than four wins. If Lehighton can’t pull an upset, there’s a chance this comes down to the final game of the season between Bangor (2-5) and Pen Argyl (2-5), with the Slaters needing a win to pass the Indians.
PLAYOFF PERCENTAGE - Northwestern 100%, Lehighton 50%.
Class 6A
(12 teams, 8 qualify)
Pleasant Valley ... Despite the fact that the Bears are winless and ranked last among 12 teams, they still have a slight chance to get in because the current eighth-ranked team is Pocono Mountain West (2-5), who they play this week. Pleasant Valley (PM West, East Stroudsburg South, Stroudsburg) would need to win out and then get some help from teams playing Liberty, PM West, Allen and Dieruff.
PLAYOFF PERCENTAGE - Pleasant Valley
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COMEBACK PART 1 ... Panther Valley trailed Marian 10-0 after the first quarter of last Friday’s game. However, the Panthers rallied, however, to earn a 40-17 victory.
The last time PV came back from a double-digit deficit to win was Oct. 21, 1994, when it trailed Tamaqua, 18-7 at halftime. The Panthers, behind two touchdown passes from Chris Kuzma, scored two fourth-quarter touchdowns to triumph by a 27-24 score.
Since that late rally 25 years ago, Panther Valley had lost 161 consecutive games it trailed by 10-or-more points.
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COMEBACK PART 2 ... Jim Thorpe also trailed in its game last Friday before coming back to win.
The Olympians faced a 17-7 deficit in the fourth quarter against Blue Mountain before using a pair of fourth-quarter touchdowns to gain a 21-17 victory.
The last time Thorpe was losing by 10-or-more points in the final period and still managed to pull out a win was Nov. 5, 1994. In that contest, Pius X held a 24-7 advantage, but the Olympians used two scores from Gary Storer (one on defense and one on offense) and one from Brad Sibbach to triumph 27-24.
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ROUGHIES ‘HEYDT’ LUCAS ... Palmerton’s Lucas Heydt had a big game against Catasauqua last Friday, catching touchdown passes of 61 and 55 yards.
Over the past 30 years, no other Blue Bomber player has had two TD catches of 50 yards or more in the same game. The closest was Trent Everett, who had a 53 and a 49-yarder against Lehighton on Nov. 10, 1995.
Heydt is also just one of four Palmerton players during that timeframe to record two offensive touchdowns of at least 50 yards in the same contest. The others include Mike Stasko (96 run, 69 reception on 9/4/15; and 57 reception, 54 run on 10/16/15), Jason Hernandez (66 run, 61 run on 10/4/96) and Jesse Rehus (97 run, 58 run on 9/30/94).
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STROIA FOR THREE ... Marian’s Lucca Stroia booted a 42-yard field goal during last Friday’s game against Panther Valley.
In doing so, the Colts kicker became just the second Times News area player over the past 30 years to have multiple field goals of 40 yards or more in his career (Stroia kicked a 40-yarder last season).
The only other player to accomplish that feat was Pleasant Valley’s Dean Krcic, who had a 40-yarder during the 2013 season and a 42-yarder in 2014. Krcic is currently the kicker and punter at Kutztown University.
Stroia currently has eight career field goals. The most in a career (since 1989) in the Times News area is 11, done by Northwestern’s Brandon Miller (2013-15) and Jordan Grube (2001-03).
